A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
